r/smallstreetbets - Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD
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Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD : smallstreetbets

Hello all,

Yesterday Enphase Power revealed their This autumn 2020 outcomes. See my earlier DD right here on this sub.

With this put up I wish to talk about the outcomes and the web-call with regard to future development/earnings. To date my funding in Enphase was a stable transfer (5% after-market), let’s hope that this momentum will enhance. I’ve divided this put up in three chapters: outcomes, web-cast administration notes and analyst Q&A. Nevertheless, earlier than we proceed let me first do a brief into on the brand new C-suite rent.

Chief Advertising and marketing Officer

Enphase not too long ago introduced that they employed Allison Johnson as Chief Advertising and marketing Officer. Who’s Mrs. Johnson and why did they rent her at this second? Are gross sales declining or are there some wonderful plans within the pipeline?

“Johnson brings many years of govt advertising and marketing expertise to Enphase, together with serving as chief advertising and marketing officer at PayPal, the place she led a worldwide advertising and marketing transformation, and as vp of promoting communications at Apple, Inc., the place she helped launch a few of Apple’s most iconic merchandise and campaigns of the Steve Jobs period. Johnson obtained her Bachelor of Science diploma in journalism and communications on the College of Florida.”

When checking her Linkedin, she began working at IBM as a Media Relations Director, moved to Netscape (1 12 months) à HP (6 years) à Apple (6 years) à West (7 years) à Paypal (1.5 years).

Let go away it right here for now.

Outcomes This autumn 2020:

· We reported income of $264.Eight million within the fourth quarter of 2020, together with 40.2% for non-GAAP gross margin. We shipped roughly 762 megawatts DC, or 2,292,132 microinverters.

· Income of $264.Eight million

· Money circulate from operations of $84.2 million; ending money stability of $679.four million

· GAAP gross margin of 46.0%; non-GAAP gross margin of 40.2%

· GAAP working revenue of $79.1 million; non-GAAP working revenue of $72.four million

· GAAP internet revenue of $73.Zero million; non-GAAP internet revenue of $71.three million

· GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.50; non-GAAP diluted earnings per share of $0.51

r/smallstreetbets - Enphase Energy Post-Earnings DD

This was their forecast for This autumn 2020:

For the fourth quarter of 2020, Enphase Power estimates each GAAP and non-GAAP monetary outcomes as follows:

· Income to be inside a spread of $245.Zero million to $260.Zero million; income steering doesn’t embrace any secure harbor shipments

· GAAP gross margin to be inside a spread of 37.0% to 40.0%, excluding the restoration of the remaining $16.Zero million tariff refund that has not but been accredited; non-GAAP gross margin to be inside a spread of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding tariff refund and stock-based compensation bills

· GAAP working bills to be inside a spread of $51.Zero million to $54.Zero million, together with $16.Zero million estimated for stock-based compensation bills and acquisition associated amortization

· Non-GAAP working bills to be inside a spread of $35.Zero million to $38.Zero million, excluding $16.Zero million estimated for stock-based compensation bills and acquisition associated amortization

So one can say that they carried out extraordinarily properly.

Administration notes web-call:

Badri:

**“**Let’s now discuss manufacturing. Our operations staff did a terrific job flexing manufacturing as 2020 performed out. When the pandemic started, we lower manufacturing in Q2 of 2020 after which needed to shortly ramp again as much as meet the surge in demand in Q3 and This autumn. The manufacturing in This autumn was greater than two instances the extent in Q2. I am very happy with the ramp of our Mexico manufacturing unit that met our goal of manufacturing greater than 1 million models in This autumn.”

“As a part of our provide chain technique to diversify manufacturing to tariff free and price aggressive areas globally, we started microinverter manufacturing at Salcomp, India in October of 2020 and began delivery to prospects throughout This autumn. We’ve got a top quality state-of-the-art automated line with a quarterly manufacturing capability of 0.5 million models and the house so as to add a second line with the identical capability. The manufacturing ramp goes very properly and we anticipate to supply roughly 400,000 microinverters in India in Q1.”

“Let’s now transfer on to the areas. Our US and worldwide income combine for This autumn was 82% and 18%.”

“In Europe, we reported document income for This autumn. Income elevated 10% sequentially. On an annual foundation, the income from Europe elevated 32% in 2020.”

“In Australia, we constructed on our robust Q3 outcomes and achieved document quarterly sell-through and document installer depend in This autumn. The outcomes had been fueled by the launch of our Enphase Installer Community or EIN in addition to rising demand for our excessive energy IQ 7A microinverters plus a positive aggressive setting as rules continued to shift in the direction of safer and smarter photo voltaic. We anticipate to introduce our Enphase Storage system for the Australian market throughout the fourth quarter of 2021.”

“In Latin America, we reported document quarterly income. Puerto Rico confirmed energy for our microinverter techniques in addition to our storage techniques.”

“On the identical time, the uptick in broad financial exercise has harassed the worldwide semiconductor provide chain. We’re seeing constraints on a couple of semiconductor parts utilized in our microinverters.”

**“**There are two particular parts that we’re constrained on. One is our ASIC that goes into the micro and the opposite is the AC FET drivers that truly drive the excessive voltage FET. There the secret is we’re qualifying a number of extra sources in order that we’ve extra provide in addition to expediting product. And I’m in direct contact with the CEOs of these firms and they’re serving to as a lot as they will. We anticipate to get all caught up principally by early April. Our prime precedence by means of all of that is to make sure that we care for prospects. So we are going to do no matter it takes with a purpose to guarantee their traces are working and that they don’t seem to be affected. In order that’s on the microinverter facet.”

“You will note much more going ahead. So we proceed to develop at a pleasant clip. You are able to do the mathematics. If we proceed to develop at this 30%, quickly we are going to want a 3rd provider, which may occur in 2022 and we’re already speaking to these individuals”

TL:DR: They’re rising in each side. They’re making an attempt to coach installers internationally (Australia, Europe, South-America). Ones these installers are educated appropriately, they are going to begin putting in the merchandise. Enphase will relatively wait with the installment to solely ship very educated personnel, then simply let a shitty installer do the job.

Q&A:

**Q1: “**Thanks for taking our questions and congrats on the quarter. So that you mentioned you will begin delivery IQ Eight in 2Q. How ought to we take into consideration IQ 8’s standalone pricing versus IQ 7? What will be the vary on the premium and would possibly you anticipate over time a majority of installers shifting extra towards IQ Eight versus IQ 7 or is the jury out on that query nonetheless?”

A1: “With concerning whether or not individuals are going to undertake IQ Eight over IQ 7, we predict the reply is a no brainer. It should be, sure. IQ Eight is a grid-independent microinverter system. So, due to this fact, I anticipate the adoption to be excessive when it’s launched and there are clearly a whole lot of mixtures with IQ Eight and in some circumstances, individuals would possibly favor to purchase IQ Eight with a better storage system and we shall be selling the heck out of it.”

Q2: “Okay. Thanks. And simply on the R&D cycle, are there any updates you possibly can present on the event of IQ 9 the place that presently stands presently? Is it nonetheless being developed or is it in testing part? When you can present any colour there? Thanks.”

A2: “Yeah. We are literally engaged on IQ 9 presently and IQ 9, our imaginative and prescient is principally clearly smaller, cheaper, quicker, producing much more energy than IQ 8. Proper now, we’re targeted on a couple of areas. One is, we would prefer to see easy methods to cut back the footprint of the transformers, the [indiscernible] (00:49:10), the 600-volt AC FET gadgets by means of some semiconductor course of innovation. GaN transistors have gotten widespread. GaN-on-GaN, GaN-on-silicon, they’re turning into widespread.”

Q3: “And simply on the brand new acquisitions and the digital technique, may you possibly discuss like what is the purpose right here when it comes to decreasing that mushy value? I feel a pair within the photo voltaic builders have talked about $7,000 or $8,000 per buyer of sentimental prices. So, is the concept right here to type of like carry it down much like in all probability what the mushy value is in Europe and Australia or what’s your thought course of right here? And I’ve only a fast follow-up after that as properly. Thanks.

**“**Yeah. So, mushy value is an end result of what our purpose is. Our purpose is to supply our installer companions with the very best service doable, and so – installer companions truly in addition to the home-owner. So, we’ve mapped out a really detailed journey of each how all the set up course of as properly for each the installers in addition to our owners beginning with leads all through design, proposal, allowing, procurement, commissioning, set up commissioning, permission to function O&M, et cetera. And so, if we do a tremendous job on that the place we actually create a really highly effective platform and these acquisitions that we’re speaking about are necessary parts of that journey, then I feel the pure end result of that’s going to be a discount within the mushy value. However we’re beginning with a really clear focus that that is about bringing nice worth for our long-tail installer companions.”

My ideas:

Staying invested in an organization post-earnings is often not our technique. We scan each firm on the earnings calendar and dive within the fundamentals/development of that firm. When you discover three stable firms which you wish to gamble your cash on per week, there’s a chance to earn 10% ROI on every of these firms. Investing in boomer firm of which the inventory will increase 2% post-earnings shouldn’t be attention-grabbing for us. It relatively be +7% a minimum of, or nothing.

Enphase nevertheless is a special story. They maintain beating their forecasts each quarter. There may be huge demand for his or her merchandise and so they a rising in provide and demand.

– Administration is wonderful. The best way Badri perceives the enterprise could be very consumer targeted. They’re properly conscious that this can be a consumer targeted enterprise and high quality and consumer expertise are prime precedence.

– On the subject of future development they’ve some very attention-grabbing issues occurring. IQ 8, which I anticipate to be completed throughout the 2nd quarter of this 12 months. Then it’s the job of the brand new CMO to advertise the heck out of this. As Badri mentioned within the name: “individuals would possibly favor to purchase IQ Eight with a better storage system and we shall be selling the heck out of it.”

– There may be a lot development alternative on this firm. And sure the P/E is excessive, however you need to see Enphase as a tech firm and never photo voltaic producer. Final quarter they employed 85 staff.

– So our plan: maintain this gem for yet another quarter to see how their outcomes are within the subsequent quarter. Have they improved their semiconductors drawback or not? Are they nonetheless beating the forecast or not. Then we’ll see from there on. This weekend’s plan: scan earnings calendar of subsequent week to seek out the subsequent gem 😊

Q1 2021 forecasts:

For the primary quarter of 2021, Enphase Power estimates each GAAP and non-GAAP monetary outcomes as follows:

• Income to be inside a spread of $280.Zero million to $300.Zero million; income steering doesn’t embrace any secure harbor shipments

• GAAP gross margin to be inside a spread of 37.0% to 40.0%, as there are not any remaining tariff refunds pending approval; non-GAAP gross margin to be inside a spread of 38.0% to 41.0%, excluding stock-based compensation bills

• GAAP working bills to be inside a spread of $64.Zero million to $67.Zero million, together with $22.Zero million estimated for stock-based compensation bills and acquisition associated prices and amortization

• Non-GAAP working bills to be inside a spread of $42.Zero million to $45.Zero million, excluding $22.Zero million estimated for stock-based compensation bills and acquisition associated prices and amortization

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